Saturday, March 16, 2013

Pitching Thru Non-Conference Play

The LSU pitching staff has fairly consistent during the non-conference part of the schedule. As a group, they have a batting average against them of 0.206, a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of 0.275, and an on base percentage against them of 0.265. The most impressive thing about this staff is the amount of strikeouts they have thrown. Out of 608 batters faced, the pitching staff has struck out 150 batters, a 25% strike out rate. The staff has issued a combined 30 walks, the lowest in the SEC. All told, these are some pretty impressive stats.



Primer


Here are some links to explanations for some of the stats and an abbreviation key:
Abbreviations Index
WHIP - Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched
BABIP - Batting Average on Balls In Play



Stats



Player Name IP BF AB H BA R ER ERA 1B 2B 3B HR BABIP BB HBP OBP% GDP GO FO KS KC WHIP Win Loss Saves
Nola 26.0 98 89 14 0.157 9 8 2.77 13 0 0 1 0.232 4 3 0.219 1 24 18 24 8 0.692 2 0 0
Eades 25.0 103 96 24 0.250 6 5 1.80 23 1 0 0 0.353 5 2 0.301 2 21 22 19 9 1.160 3 0 0
Glenn 24.7 93 86 16 0.186 3 2 0.73 12 4 0 0 0.222 3 2 0.231 4 33 17 10 4 0.770 3 0 0
Bonvillain 13.0 60 49 13 0.265 5 4 2.77 10 3 0 0 0.325 5 4 0.367 2 11 11 6 5 1.385 1 0 0
Cotton 10.7 39 38 8 0.211 1 1 0.84 7 1 0 0 0.348 0 0 0.211 0 5 10 11 4 0.750 1 0 5
Devall 8.7 34 33 10 0.303 2 2 2.08 5 4 1 0 0.435 1 0 0.324 0 2 11 8 2 1.269 1 0 0
Bourgeois 8.7 34 31 6 0.194 3 3 3.12 4 2 0 0 0.353 1 1 0.242 0 7 4 7 7 0.808 1 0 0
LaMarche 8.0 34 28 5 0.179 3 3 3.38 3 2 0 0 0.238 5 0 0.294 1 6 8 5 3 1.250 0 0 0
Newman 7.0 29 23 5 0.217 5 4 5.14 3 1 0 1 0.235 1 1 0.269 1 2 8 4 2 0.857 0 0 0
Rumbelow 6.3 23 21 3 0.143 3 3 4.26 1 1 1 0 0.200 2 0 0.217 1 4 7 5 1 0.789 1 0 0
Berry 5.3 25 20 2 0.100 0 0 0.00 2 0 0 0 0.111 2 3 0.280 0 4 10 1 1 0.750 2 0 0
Fury 4.0 16 14 4 0.286 5 5 11.25 2 1 0 1 0.250 1 0 0.313 1 5 3 1 1 1.250 1 1 0
Reynolds 4.0 15 15 3 0.200 1 1 2.25 3 0 0 0 0.231 0 0 0.200 0 5 4 2 0 0.750 0 0 0
Butler 1.7 5 5 0 0.000 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.000 0 0 0.000 0 3 2 0 0 0.000 0 0 0
Totals 153.0 608 548 113 0.206 46 41 2.41 88 20 2 3 0.275 30 16 0.265 13 132 135 103 47 0.935 16 1 5



Row Labels IP BF FO% GO% K% H % BB % AB_RISP H_RISP BARISP
Nola 26.0 98 18% 24% 33% 14% 7% 10 6 0.600
Eades 25.0 103 21% 20% 27% 23% 7% 23 3 0.130
Glenn 24.7 93 18% 40% 15% 17% 5% 19 0 0
Bonvillain 13.0 60 18% 22% 18% 22% 15% 13 2 0.154
Cotton 10.7 39 26% 13% 38% 21% 0% 10 2 0.200
Devall 8.7 34 32% 6% 29% 29% 3% 12 4 0.333
Bourgeois 8.7 34 12% 21% 41% 18% 6% 6 2 0.333
LaMarche 8.0 34 24% 18% 24% 15% 15% 11 1 0.091
Newman 7.0 29 28% 10% 21% 17% 7% 3 1 0.333
Rumbelow 6.3 23 30% 22% 26% 13% 9% 3 0 0
Berry 5.3 25 40% 16% 8% 8% 20% 7 0 0
Fury 4.0 16 19% 31% 13% 25% 6% 2 2 1.000
Reynolds 4.0 15 27% 40% 13% 20% 0% 1 1 1.000
Butler 1.7 5 40% 60% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0
Totals 153.0 608 22% 23% 25% 19% 8% 120 24 0.200



Starting Pitching


The starting trio of Aaron Nola, Ryan Eades, and Cody Glenn has provided quality innings in four starts each. The starters are averaging 6 1/3 innings pitched per start, which is a good average of innings pitched. The deeper these guys can go, the less pressure there will be on the bullpen. If they can consistently hit 5-7 innings per start, the Tigers will be in good shape. All three have strike percentages above 65%, so they are pounding the strike zone consistently. Given the high strike %, it's not a surprise that they have given up only 12 walks in 12 games. They are also being very efficient with the pitch count, throwing around 87 pitches per start.

Aaron Nola's individual lines are what you should expect from a Friday starter in non-conference play. The most impressive thing about Nola's stats thus far is his very low WHIP of 0.692 and he has only faced ten batters with a runner in scoring position. Granted he has given up six hits in those situations, but half of those hits occurred in the seventh inning against Washington (he was perfect in that game until then). The best thing is that Nola has kept those situations to a minimum. Nola leads the starters in K% at 33%. That's nuts. 1/3 of the time, he has struck out batters.

Ryan Eades has had a tougher time than Aaron Nola or Cody Glenn. Opponents are getting on base more consistently against Eades. His WHIP is 1.160 and his BABIP is 0.301. Both are highest amongst the three starters. Eades has been great at getting timely outs though. Batters with RISP against Eades only have three hits in twenty three chances. Guys may get on base against Eades, but they don't score often.

Cody Glenn has been a great surprise for the pitching staff. In his four starts, he has the lowest ERA and BABIP among the starting pitchers. Like Eades, Glenn has come up large in tough spots. In the 19 times he has faces batters with RISP, he has given up zero hits. He has induced a team high four double plays, which has helped him further limit his opponents chances. Unlike Eades and Nola, Glenn is primarily a ground ball pitcher with a ground out percentage of 40%, which is a big plus. It usually means that he does not have to work as hard to get batters out.

Brent Bonvillain started the season as a starter, so I'll include him here to see why he lost his starting job to Glenn. Bonvillain struggled in his three starts. He had a fairly high walk rate of 15% and has a team high WHIP of 1.385. His opponent's on base percentage against him is high at 0.325. His strike percentage was also off somewhat at 59.9%. When you see these numbers, it's not hard to see why Glenn was given the Sunday job. Bonvillain was a great middle reliever for the Tigers last year, so he should be comfortable being put back into that role.


Bullpen


The Bullpen has been less consistent that the starting pitching, but has been effective through the first 17 games. Some new guys are making good first impressions and some returning veterans are proving their worth in tough spots. It seems that LSU will go with some combination of Nick Rumbelow, Will LaMarche, Joey Bourgeois, and Hunter Devall for middle relief with Chris Cotton as the closer, so I'll mainly focus on them. With all of the stats I'm about to provide, please be wary of sample size. These guys have not pitched a whole lot, so reading too much into these numbers is a real possibility.

Rumbelow has been good since returning from injury, but has some areas he could improve on. He has struggled with his control some with a strike percentage of 57%. The good thing is that he does not allow many base runners with a BABIP of 0.200 and WHIP of 0.789.

Joey Bourgeois has been somewhat inconsistent in his appearances, which is reflected in his numbers. His overall WHIP is low at 0.808, but his BABIP is high at 0.353. Bourgeois is going to be the go to K guy out of the pen though. His K% is through the roof at 41%. If the team needs strikeout, expect Mainieri to go to Bourgeois.

Will LaMarche has been hit or miss as well. His BABIP is low at 0.238, but he has one of the higher WHIP's on the team at 1.250. LaMarche has a strike percentage of 59.7%, which is lower than the team average. His lower than normal strike percentage is the main influence of his 15% walk rate. He has limited opportunities against him very well, only giving up one hit on eleven batters faced with RISP.

Hunter Devall has some high stats that may be cause for concern somewhat. He has the highest BABIP on the team at 0.435 and the highest batting average against him at 0.303. He has also given up four hits on twelve chances when facing a batter with RISP. While this might be somewhat alarming, he has been getting good experience as a true freshman. He is a hard throwing left hander, something you don't see too often in college baseball. The more experience and coaching he gets is only a plus at this point.

Chris Cotton is off to a very good start as the LSU closer this season. The guy throws strikes more consistently than anyone with at 71.8% strike percentage. He also has one of the lowest WHIPs on the team at 0.750. His BABIP is high at 0.348, but he has limited chances against him, only giving up two hits on ten attempts when facing batters with RISP. Unless Cotton starts blowing saves regularly, he is the closer.


Wrap Up


LSU will need to rely on the pitching staff limiting opportunities as much as possible in SEC play if they want to contend for the regular season championship. The pitching staff has done that so far, but will face much better competition in SEC play. They need to take these numbers and either improve them or hold them steady to be successful in SEC play.

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