Wednesday, February 27, 2013

LSU vs. ULL (2/26/2013) Analysis

Well, that was a game, I guess.  Not really a whole lot to take away from this game.

Cody Glenn pitched a fantastic game.  Throwing only 69 pitches in 7 shut out innings.  He was lights out and had no stress through the evening.  Nick Rumbelow pitched his first inning since his injury and was solid during his inning, only giving up one hit and retiring the other three batters he faced.  Joey Bourgeois had a bad inning, but the game was so far out of reach that it didn't matter.  Better for him to have a bad inning in a blow out instead of a close game during SEC play.

The only thing that really stands out about the offense is that LSU managed to put up 11 runs while going 5/21 with runners in scoring position.  Yeah, you read that right.  And 4 of those 5 hits came from two players, Bregman and Moore, who both had great nights.  Moore finally made the LSU DH spot productive going 3/4 with a triple, 3 RBI, and a run scored.  Bregman got his first home run as a Tiger, blasting a 3 run shot in the third inning.  He also added a triple to go 2/4 with 4 RBI and a run scored.

One ugly problem did rear its head in this game.  The Tigers hit into 4 double plays.  I really hope that does not continue through the season, again.  Watching/Hearing a double play being turned on the team you cheer for really, really sucks.  It also kills any momentum the team is trying to build.  Double plays are utterly demoralizing.  And the exact opposite is true when the Tigers turn a double play.  Pure joy.

Anyways, on to the stats!

Pitching


Player NameInning PABHGIDPERRunsOBAPCERA1B2B3BHRBBHBPOBABIPGOFOKSKCFCAB_RISPH_RISPOBA_RISPWHIPWLSaves
Glenn7.02331000.130690.001200000.136125012300.0000.429100
Rumbelow1.0410000.250150.001000000.25011001000.0001.000000
Bourgeois1.0630220.5001818.002100001.00000120111.0003.000000
Grand Total9.03371220.2121022.004300000.241136133410.2500.778100


Offense


Player NameAPPABHitsBA1B2B3BHRRBIRunsBBHBPOBP %slug %GPARCKCKSGOFOPCPAPPAB_RISPH_RISPBA_RISP
Bregman5520.400001141000.4001.4000.53031011163.2320.667
Ibarra5420.500110002100.6000.7500.45810011183.6200.000
Moore4430.750111031000.7501.5000.71330001164.0221.000
Laird4200000001200.5000.0000.22500011143.5200.000
Rhymes4420.500110002000.5000.7500.41310101133.3100.000
Ross4300000010000.0000.0000-11011112.8300.000
Sciambra4300000000010.2500.0000.11300030164.0200.000
Jones4310.333100001010.5000.3330.30810011123.0210.500
Katz4111.000100003211.0001.0000.70010000143.5000.000
McMullen2210.500010000000.5001.0000.4750000184.0100.000
Stevenson1100000000000.0000.00000001033.0100.000
Foster1000000000011.0000.0000.4500000022.0000.000
Chinea1100000000000.0000.00000000122.0100.000
Yocom1111.000100000001.0001.0000.7001000022.0000.000
Edward1100000010000.0000.00000000011.0100.000
Barash1111.000100000001.0001.0000.7001000022.0000.000
Grand Total4636140.3897421911540.5110.6940.404721991503.32150.238


Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Data Dump - Games thru 2/24/2013

I am going to start doing a data dump after every weekend series.  I will breakdown the hitting stats between season totals and the stats compiled by the team during the week.  I finally have the pitching stats ready to go, so those will be included from here on out. The pitching stats will be broken down by individual game and will also include season totals.  I will also breakdown the offense and pitching by game so I can track how the team performed from game to game.  If you would like me to start including some stats that I do not have, please leave me a comment and I will include those numbers in the future.  You can see all of the stats after the jump.


Sunday, February 24, 2013

Batting Stats vs BYU - 2/23/2012

Here are the stats from last nights game against BYU.  The Tigers went 2/10 with RISP.  The Tigers did manage to generate 7 walks, but failed to capitalize on them.


Player NameAPPABHitsBAGPA1B2B3BHRRBIRunsBBHBPOBP %RCKCKSPCPABPAPPBA_RISPAB_RISPH_RISP
Sciambra51000.338000002210.7501002121.04.2000
Laird5410.2500.175100001000.250000143.52.8010
Bregman5420.5000.458110021100.600200153.83.00.50021
Rhymes5310.3330.353100000200.600000248.04.8020
Katz5410.2500.153100020000.200100174.33.40.50021
Jones54000.090000000100.200000276.85.4010
Ross44000000000000000123.03.0010
Moore2200000000000000042.02.0010
Ibarra43000.113000000100.250000155.03.8000
Edward3310.3330.317010000000.333100113.73.7000
Grand Total433260.1880.216420044710.3414001605.03.70.200102

Here are the total stats from the two games the Tigers played against BYU. Give big credit to the BYU pitching staff. They played well in both games against the Tigers and only had one bad inning.  LSU went a pedestrian 5/19 with RISP against BYU.  The only clutch hitting for the Tigers was the bottom of the 9th of the first game, where LSU got 2 of its 5 hits with RISP.  

Mark Laird had a fantastic series against BYU. He went 5/9, scored 3 runs, and was the Tigers most productive batter with a GPA of 0.417 for the series.

Alex Bregman also had a good series, going 4/9 against BYU pitching and driving in 3 runs while hitting 2/4 with RISP.

The rest of the lineup struggled a bit.  Rhymes, Katz, and Jones went a combined 5/22.  Rhymes did manage 3 walks, but only scored one run because of lack of production behind him.  Jones, who had been the Tigers most patient hitter, only had one walk against BYU.  Tyler Moore and Ty Ross failed to get a hit against BYU pitching and only generated one walk between them.  Chris Sciambra went 1/5 but did manage to get 3 walks and was hit by a pitch.

It's plain and simple, the Tigers need to hit better when they have RISP.  If LSU takes advantage of their chances, this series against BYU could have looked much different.

Player NameAPPABHitsBAGPA1B2B3BHRRBIRunsBBHBPOBP %RCKCKSPCPABPAPPBA_RISPAB_RISPH_RISP
Sciambra10510.2000.300100003310.556102397.83.90.00010
Laird10950.5560.417410003000.556200313.43.10.00020
Bregman10940.4440.392220031100.500310313.43.10.50042
Rhymes10720.2860.296200011300.500200405.74.00.25041
Katz9820.2500.256100131000.222100334.13.70.33331
Jones9710.1430.221010020110.333110436.14.80.50021
Ross8700.0000.056000000100.125001273.93.40.00010
Moore6600.0000.000000000000.000-100244.04.00.00020
Ibarra8620.3330.433100111200.500200264.33.30.00000
Edward3310.3330.317010000000.333100113.73.7000
Grand Total8367180.2690.2801150210101120.38311233054.63.70.263195

Thursday, February 21, 2013

LSU vs BYU 2/22/2013 Hitting Stats


Player NameAPPABHitsBAGPA1B2B3BHRRBIRunsBBHBPOBP %RCKCKSPCPABPAPPBA_RISPAB_RISPH_RISP
Sciambra5410.2500.243100001100.400002184.53.60.00010
Laird5540.8000.610310002000.800200173.43.40.00010
Bregman5520.4000.330110010000.400110163.23.20.50021
Rhymes5410.2500.243100011100.400100164.03.20.50021
Katz4410.2500.363000111000.250100164.04.00.00010
Jones4310.3330.392010020010.500110165.34.01.00011
Ross4300.0000.113000000100.250001155.03.80.00000
Moore4400.0000.000000000000.000000205.05.00.00010
Ibarra4320.6670.754100111100.750200113.72.80.00000
Grand Total4035120.3430.341730266410.4258231454.13.60.33393

Offense Through First Four Games (2013)

LSU's offensive production through the first four games has varied wildly from player to player.  So I will breakdown each player individually, limiting myself to players with more than 5 plate appearances.

Some of the metrics I will be looking at are:
  • Gross Production Average (GPA) which is a variation on OPS that gives more weight to on base percentage  than slugging percentage.  It helps describe the overall offensive productivity of a player and returns a number that can be interpreted much like batting average.  
  • Runs Created (RC) - a metric created by Bill James which attempts to estimate the number of runs a hitter should contribute to a team given his offensive production.   I am using the 2002 updated version and will combare each players RC to the actual number of Runs contributed.  
  • Pitches per Appearance (P/APP) - I look at this ratio to get an idea of how patient players are being when they come up to bat.  A higher average means that they are taking more time at the plate and are waiting for their best pitches to hit.  Higher ratios also mean the opposing pitcher has to work harder to create an out.  
I will fully admit that I am probably not the most advanced or sophisticated analyst on the planet, but these numbers are fairly easy to interpret and should let get a good understanding of how each batter is doing.   I will focus on batters who have at least 5 plate appearances because they will have factored in more significantly in the games that have been played.  

Here is a short table that omits some of the statistics I posted earlier and focuses more on the overall production statistics.  



AVGOn Base %GPABB1B2B3BHRRRBIRCP/APPBA_RISP
Sciambra0.5830.7060.48456100315.694.10.500
Laird0.1330.1880.11812000010.273.50.250
Bregman0.3330.3890.25825000333.193.70.500
Rhymes0.3570.4380.28615000201.243.80.000
Katz0.2000.3330.21722100421.263.90.200
Jones0.4440.6670.57862002633.614.70.500
Ibarra0.2140.2670.19112100232.214.10.500
Ross0.3000.3000.28502001243.493.40.667
Edward0.1430.1430.10001000010.352.80.500
Moore0.4000.4000.28002000121.073.60.500
Foster0.0001.0000.45000000300.340.000
McMullen0.1670.1670.11701000010.364.70.500
Chinea0.0000.3330.15010000000.123.30.000
Stevenson1.0001.0000.70002000221.324.51.000
Yocom0.0000.0000.00000000002.00.000
Barash0.0000.0000.00000000004.00.000
Team Totals0.2970.3970.2761932303282324.513.80.405


Monster Production from Chris Sciambra and Jacoby Jones

Sciambra and Jones are far and away the two most productive forces in the LSU lineup at the moment.  

Sciambra has been a fantastic lead off man and doing exactly what you need your lead off man to do, be patient at the plate and get on base.  Sciambra leads the team in batting average (0.583), OBP (0.706), RC (6) and second highest number of walks (5), but has only scored 3 runs because of a lack of production from some of the batters behind him (chiefly Mark Laird, more on him in a bit).  

Jacoby Jones has been a monster in the middle of the lineup for the Tigers.  He currently leads the team in GPA, HR, walks, and P/APP.  He has been the most patient batter in the Tigers lineup, picking his spots and making the most of every plate appearance.  Jacoby's RC is lower than his actual runs scored because the version of RC I am using takes into account situational hitting.  Hitting solo home runs and having few opportunities with runners in scoring position is actually lowering his overall run contribution to RC, but he is still off to a fantastic start.  

This is a very good start to the season for both Jones and Sciambra, but it is bound to bounce down.  We cannot read much into these numbers and we should definitely not expect them to continue as the quality of opponents increases during SEC play and the Tigers are forced to leave the comfortable surroundings of Alex Box Stadium.  

Expect More Out of Raph Rhymes and Mason Katz

After nearly batting 0.500 for nearly all of last season, Rhymes has come back to Earth.  It would be impossible to expect Rhymes to continue the tear he was on last season, but we have come to expect a lot from him.  He is currently producing below his capability with a GPA of 0.286, but I expect this average to rise as he gets more comfortable.   His RC is lower than the team average because of the situational circumstances when he bats.  He does not have a hit in three chances with runners in scoring position, but he will get more opportunities as the season progresses so he can improve quickly (especially early in the season with so few AB's).

Mason Katz has struggled in the first three games, but there is not any obvious number you can point to for his struggles.  He is being very patient at the plate with 4.1 P/APP.  He did get more productive as the weekend went on, so this may just be a blip on the radar until he settles in for the season.  He has had the most opportunities with RISP, but has only gone 1 for 5 thus far.  

Solid Production from Bregman, Ross, Ibarra, and Moore

Alex Bregman, Ty Ross, and Tyler Moore are all lending solid contributions to the team through the first four games.  

Alex Bregman has been impressive, hitting in the three hole for the Tigers.  He has been hitting well with runners in scoring position, converting 2 out of his 4 chances through four games.   This has contributed to his high RC of 3.19, good for fourth on the team.  I would like to see him go deeper into counts and work pitchers harder.  He has a below team average 3.5 P/APP and has put the pull in play on less than two pitches 6 times in 15 at bats.  However, he is 3/6 when he puts the ball in play with two pitches or less, so what the hell do I know.  I should probably just shut up at this point.  He creates chances and puts the ball in play.  Let's hope he keeps this production going.

Ross' batting has been solid so far.  He has converted 2 of 3 chances with runners in scoring position with a home run.  This has largely given rise to his RC of 3.49, good for third on the team.  Despite his good production, he needs to be more patient at the plate.  He has a low P/APP (3.4) and has put the ball in play with two pitches or less 5 times in 10 at bats (1 hit in these AB's).

Moore has made the most of his limited opportunities.  He has a decent GPA of 0.280 and is 1 for 2 with RISP.  I see him being used as the DH versus right handed pitching, but if he continues to produce he could lock down the DH position regardless of the pitcher.

While he has not lit the world on fire, Christian Ibarra has been productive for LSU.  His GPA is below average (0.191), but he has come through with RISP.  He is 2/4 with RISP, which has led to his good RC of 2.21 (fifth best on the team).


Laird and Edward Struggling Early

Mark Laird could really use a confidence booster.  He has a GPA of only 0.118, lowest among the starters (excluding DH's).  His lack of production hurts because he is batting after Sciambra.  Sciambra can get on base all he wants, but if Laird does not produce after him then the Tigers could struggle later in the season to score runs.  Laird is slightly impatient with a 3.5 P/APP plus he has put the ball in play with less than two pitches 6 times in 15 at bats (no hits).  LSU has seen a lot of left hand pitching early this season, so that could be one reason for Laird's struggles.  I will need to run the numbers on Laird versus left and right hand pitchers to get confirmation.  However, you should expect Mainieri to move him down the lineup until he improves at the plate.

It's pretty easy to see why Alex Edward is struggling.  He has a 2.8 P/APP average, lowest on the team (with a minimum of 5 PA).  He has put the ball in play with two pitches or less 5 times in 7 AB's (no hits).  Edward needs to pick his pitches better and show more patience at the plate.  It might not solve his production problem instantly, but it never hurts to be more patient at the plate.  




Stats as of 2/20/2013

Here are the aggregated batting stats for the team as of 2/20/2013.  Pitching stats will be coming later.  I am still entering the data and getting the spreadsheet set up to my liking.  Please bear with me while I get everything organized.  Once all of that is done, actual analysis and discussion will begin.

Batting Stats


2013 SeasonNo.GPApp.ABHITSAVGSlugOn Base %Total BasesOPSGPA1B2B3BHRHBPREBBSac FlySac bntKSKCGOFOGO/FOFC
Sciambra54171270.5830.6670.70681.3730.42961000050011120.500
Laird94171520.1330.1330.18820.3210.09320000010110541.253
Bregman304181550.3330.3330.38950.7220.23350000021010531.671
Rhymes44161450.3570.3570.43850.7950.25050001110000250.401
Katz84181530.2000.2670.33340.6000.15721001120030350.600
Jones23415940.4441.1110.667101.7780.47820020060012100.001
Ibarra144151430.2140.2860.26740.5520.16821000110020431.331
Ross264101030.3000.6000.30060.9000.28520010000000340.750
Edward1348710.1430.1430.14310.2860.10010000000100240.500
Moore235520.4000.4000.40020.8000.28020000000000212.000
Foster1731000.0000.0001.00000.00000001000000000.000
McMullen736610.1670.1670.16710.3330.11710000000010221.000
Chinea2023200.0000.0000.33300.3330.00000000010000111.000
Stevenson622221.0001.0001.00022.0000.70020000000000000.000
Yocom2811100.0000.0000.00000.0000.00000000000000000.001
Barash1111100.0000.0000.00000.0000.00000000000000100.000
Team Totals153128380.2970.3910.397500.7880.2313230333191210332340.948



2013 SeasonRRBISBCSPCP/APPP_ABP/ABGIDPRCRPAB_RISPH_RISPBA_RISPBABIPBB/APPK/APP
Sciambra3110673.9443.705.72.00210.5000.70029.4%11.8%
Laird0100593.5513.410.30.50410.2500.1435.9%5.9%
Bregman3320673.7533.513.23.00420.5000.33311.1%5.6%
Rhymes2000603.8493.511.21.00300.0000.3576.3%0.0%
Katz4200703.9583.911.33.00510.2000.25011.1%16.7%
Jones6301714.7424.703.64.50210.5000.50040.0%20.0%
Ibarra2300614.1553.902.22.50420.5000.2506.7%13.3%
Ross2400343.4343.403.53.00320.6670.2220.0%0.0%
Edward0100222.8192.710.30.50210.5000.1430.0%0.0%
Moore1200183.6183.601.11.50210.5000.4000.0%0.0%
Foster3000100.000.31.50000.0000.0000.0%0.0%
McMullen0101284.7284.700.40.50210.5000.2000.0%16.7%
Chinea0000103.352.500.10.00100.0000.00033.3%0.0%
Stevenson220094.594.501.32.00221.0001.0000.0%0.0%
Yocom000022.022.000.00100.0000.0000.0%0.0%
Barash000044.044.000.00000.0000.0000.0%0.0%
Team Totals2823325833.84713.7524.525.5037150.4050.31012.4%8.5%